Smart Sarpong Warns Against Reading Too Much into NPP Flagbearer Polls
By: Adwoa Nyarko Asiamah
A senior researcher at Kumasi Technical University, Smart Sarpong, has cautioned political actors and the public against placing excessive confidence in opinion polls predicting the outcome of the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) presidential primary.
Speaking on The Bulletin on Asaase Radio on Monday, 19 January, Mr Sarpong explained that opinion polls are merely projections and should not be mistaken for the actual results of an election.
He noted that his recent study on the NPP flagbearer race was not intended to validate or dispute other surveys currently circulating, stressing that variations in findings often stem from differences in research design, sampling techniques, and data collection tools.
According to him, research outcomes tend to align only when studies are conducted using identical populations, sample sizes, and methodologies. Once these factors differ, contrasting results are expected.
Mr Sarpong further pointed out that with an estimated delegate base of over 200,000, it is unrealistic to expect any single poll to perfectly capture the final voting pattern, as individual preferences naturally differ.
He cautioned researchers against presenting survey results as conclusive forecasts, emphasising that the role of academic research is to objectively reflect sampled opinions, not to declare winners.
“Our responsibility is to engage respondents, analyse their views, and present the findings. The true outcome will only be known after the votes are cast,” he said.
While acknowledging that some candidates appear to be gaining momentum, he stressed that opinion polls should serve as strategic guides for aspirants to assess their strengths and weaknesses rather than as grounds for celebration.
With less than two weeks to the NPP’s flagbearer election, Mr Sarpong added that although many delegates may have already decided, campaigns must avoid complacency.
“In politics, circumstances can shift quickly. Even at this point, outcomes are not set in stone,” he stated.
